
Two years later, there are
reasons for satisfaction and there are reasons for discontent.
But what does the scenario like
from an overall perspective of the common Indian like you and me?
We at Orbis Economics have
developed a composite measure of Consumer Conditions, which informs us how
Indians are faring in their role as consumers. The measure is based on monthly
proxy indicators for consumption, intent to purchase and also the price
conditions. The measure stands at a value of 103.1 for March, 2016, the period
for which we have the latest numbers.
So is this good or bad?
Any value above 100 indicates
that consumers are better off than they were during the past 12 months and a
value below 100 indicates that they are worse off than they have been over the
past one year.
The good news is, that at a value
of 103.1, consumers are better off than they have been over the past 12 months.
Moreover, the value has been consistently over 100 for the past four months. Reaching
the above 100 mark is not necessarily a given: In 6 of the past 12 months, the
value was actually below 100, indicating that consumers are worse off in these
months than they have been in the past one year.
So far so good.
However, the measure is slightly
down from the corresponding period of the previous year. In March 2015, it
stood at 106.9 and even in March 2014 the value was at 104.1. In sum,
therefore, the Consumer Conditions measure indicates, that while at the end of
2015-16, the average Indian consumer saw improving conditions, compared to the
rest of the year, the conditions themselves are not as good as they were at the
same time in 2015 or in 2014.
What explains this trend?
The period prior to March 2014
was particularly weak in terms of consumer conditions, which provided much
buoyancy to the measure value. However, there was a genuine improvement in
conditions by March 2015, in the first year of the NDA government on account of
economic optimism, among other factors. However, continued challenges to the
Indian economy, have cast a shadow on the latest reading.
Despite improved price conditions
and intent among consumers to buy, there is still some on the ground diffidence
among consumers.
To stay updated on the Orbis
Economics Consumer Conditions measure, please sign up for e-mail updates at www.orbiseconomics.com and receive alerts directly in your inbox!
No comments:
Post a Comment